Housing taking off?

Another day, another positive report for housing. The Census Bureau reports rising New Home Sales nationwide  -- one day after the National Association of REALTORS® did the same for Existing Home Sales. The housing recovery remains on course.

New Home Supplies Sinking

The number of new homes sold rose to 343,000 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in April -- a 3.3 percent jump from March and a 10% improvement from one year ago.
Excepting February 2012, April's figures marks the second-highest tally for New Home Sales since the end of the 2010 federal home buyer tax credit. It's also the seventh out of the last 8 months during which sales for newly-built homes increased.
During that time, the supply of new homes for sale has dropped 13% to 146,000 homes nationwide. At the current pace of sales, the nation's complete new home inventory would be sold in 5.1 months.
A 6-month supply is believed to indicate a market in balance. Anything less than 6 months suggests a bull market for housing; a market in which sellers have negotiation leverage over buyers.
In the "new construction" market, this leverage is especially important.
As compared to a home resale, new homes are specifically sold by builders to individual buyers -- first-time buyers and move-up buyers alike. Builders are less likely to offer deep discounts and/or free upgrade when market conditions favor sellers, and when homes are in high demand.
Consistent with the New Home Sales data, home builders report buyer foot traffic to be at its highest levels since 2007.

Low Mortgage Rates, Stimulus Boost Home Sales

New home sales have been boosted by an improving economy and sagging mortgage rates. The economy has put more people back to work, and boosted consumer confidence. Falling mortgage rates have helped, too.
Freddie Mac reports this week's average, 30-day fixed rate mortgage rate at 3.78% nationwide with and accompanying 0.8 discount points. As compared to one year ago, that's an improvement of 0.86 percent.
As a real-life example, assuming a mortgage at the conforming loan limit of $417,000, today's mortgage payments are $210 less.

• May 2011 : $2,148 monthly payment (principal + interest only)
• May 2012 : $1,938 monthly payment (principal + interest only)

Loans at the $625,500 conforming loan limit in high-cost areas including Orange County, California and Fall Church, Virginia would save more.
Low rates and the availability of low-downpayment mortgage program such as the FHA's 3.5% downpayment program; the VA 100% financing program; the USDA 100% financing program; and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's 5% downpayments should help keep home demand high through the spring and summer months.

Buying New Construction? Good "Deals" Disappearing

If you're in the market for new construction and newly-built homes, consider that rising demand and shrinking supply result in higher prices. If you're looking for a deal, the best values may be the one you find today.
See today's mortgage rates and build your housing budget. Low-downpayment or 20% downpayment, it helps to know your options.

Housing Headed UP

More good news from the housing market. The number of home resales rose in April nationwide, and median sales prices rose, too. The former is a function of an improving market conditions; the latter a function of the actual homes getting sold.

Existing Home Sales Up 10% Since Last Year

In its April Existing Home Sales Report, the National Association of REALTORS® reports 4.62 million homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This is the second-highest reading since May 2010, the month after the expiration of that year's federal home buyer tax credit.
It's also a 10% increase over April 2011, a noteworthy statistic in its own right.
Since late-2011, the housing market has been improving. Steadily, home sales have moved higher; builder confidence has reached multi-year heights; and, in many U.S. markets, home values have climbed. On a month-to-month basis, it's hard to spot longer-term trends. Beginning this month, it should become easier.
We're only now beginning to see the effects of the government's massive market interventions. As the housing market improves through 2012, 2013 and 2014, we'll look back at Spring 2012 and dub it the "turnaround".

3 Years Later, Markets Respond To Stimulus

Along with the U.S. economy, the housing market cracked in mid-2007. The government stepped in, adding spot-stimulus where Congress deemed necessary. By mid-2008, though, with the economy still stalled, elected representatives hatched larger, more wide-reaching stimulus plans.
Some programs were passed, many were not. The housing market, though, received its fair share.
Since 2009, in broad categories, the housing market has been subject to (1) Home buyer federal tax incentives meant to spur home buying, (2) Mortgage market stimulus meant to make homes more affordable, and (3) Legislative and judicial efforts meant to promote fair and expedited foreclosures.
It's taken 3 years to take hold, but we're finally seeing results. April's Existing Home Sales data shows how the housing market stimulus has moved the market forward.

The Housing Recovery's Foundation Is Built

There have been tomes written about the housing market's collapse last decade; and who's to blame; and how it happened. Those arguments take a macro approach, focusing on the U.S. economy, the bets of Wall Street and financial instruments known as mortgage-backed securities.
From a micro-angle, the conversation looks different. There were really only two reasons why the housing market tanked between 2007-2010 :

1. Home sellers could not (or would not) sell their homes
2. Self-employed and commissioned workers could not (or would not) get a mortgage

It's these micro-issues that the government attempted to relieve. And, as we're seeing now, those attempts were successful.
When Congress passed the first version of its home buyer tax credit, the credit was for first-time buyers only. The program was meant to add new home buyers to the housing pool, creating demand for "entry-level" homes.
Of course, the sellers of these entry-level homes need a place to live, too. They become what's known as a "move-up" buyer and, in this way, one home sale becomes 2 or 3 homes sold. Real estate is a trickle-up business.
The first-time home buyer tax credit program was deemed effective and was eventually expanded to include buyers of all types -- not just first-timers.
This built the foundation for the housing market's recovery.
And, meanwhile, as this all was happening in housing, stimulus for other parts of the economy were gaining traction.  After a terrible run as a result of the economy, many businesses returned to profitability in 2010 and business spending resumed rising. This reversed the annual income decline that most business owners and commissioned salespersons experienced between 2007 and 2008.
Mortgage underwriters don't like to see declining income. As a result, many self-employed mortgage applicants -- especially the high-income earning households -- found themselves turned down by their respective banks during 2009, based on the adjusted gross income shown on the prior year's tax returns.
The country's move-up buyers, therefore, got stuck. Owners of jumbo and luxury homes couldn't get financing to move out. So, they stayed.
Today, with the economy moving forward, these homeowners can show strong income, and get be approved for their next mortgage. The housing market's ceiling is lifted.

High-Valued Homes Lead The Housing Recovery

When we look at April's Existing Home Sales report in the context of government stimulus, it makes complete sense that home sales in the sub-$100,000 price range fell over the last 12 months but that all other price ranges improved.
Last year, the foundation was built. This year, it's the trickle-up effect.
Move-up buyers are leading the recovery. Higher price points should continue to fare well through the rest of 2012 while lower-priced homes sell well, too, but without the effects of direct market stimulus.

Build Your Housing Budget Using Today's Mortgage Rates

Today's home buyers -- first-time buyer, move-up buyer, or investor -- can benefit from low mortgage rates and a recovering housing market. Home values are higher in many U.S. cities but all-time low mortgage rates have made homes more affordable than ever before.
Even in the jumbo housing market.
To buy a home, get started with a budget. Get today's mortgage rates and know your housing payment.

Where can you afford?

Everywhere you look, mortgage rates are down. Conforming mortgage rates, FHA mortgage rates, USDA mortgage rates and jumbo mortgage rates are each posting all-time lows.Combined with slowly rising home values and an increase in the national median income, for the first time in history, more than 77 percent of home sold were "affordable" for everyday Americans.

Low Mortgage Rates Make For Low Mortgage Payments

According to the National Association of Home Builders, 77.5% of homes sold last quarter were affordable to families earning the national median income of $65,000. "Home affordability" is defined as having housing payments that fall below 28 percent of household income assuming a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and a 10 percent downpayment.
The NAHB's definition of "affordable" is akin to what mortgage underwriters call a "front-end ratio". You can be approved for a mortgage with a front-end ratio north of 28 percent, but it may not be advisable. In defining home affordability in terms of front-end ratios, in other words, the homebuilders' association promotes a conservative approach to homeownership.
That said, home affordability moved to record levels last quarter for three main reasons :

1. Home prices climbed in many U.S. markets, but only slowly. The list of real estate markets experiencing rapid appreciation last quarter was a short list one (e.g.; San Francisco, California)
2. The median income level improved nationally, rising 1% from the quarter prior
3. Most mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels in history between January-March

Rising home prices are no match for falling mortgage rates with respect to home affordability. So long as mortgage rates stay low, home affordability should remain high.

Cincinnati, Dayton, South Carolina Remain Affordable

Keeping with the adage that all real estate is local, on a regional basis last quarter, home affordability varied.
Cumberland, Maryland topped the national rankings; 99.0% of homes in the Maryland border town were affordable to households earning the median income there. Fairbanks, Alaska followed in the number two slot with an affordability ranking of 98.9%.
Midwestern cities then stuffed the rest of the Top 10 Most Affordable Markets, a list that features Indianapolis, Indiana in the 5th slot for all housing markets, and the top slot for "big cities".
95.8% of homes in Indianapolis are affordable to households earning the median income there.
Other noteworthy cities scored as follows :

• Dayton, Ohio : 93.7 percent
• Lakeland / Winter Haven, Florida : 93.2 percent
• Springfield, Illinois : 92.0 percent
• Cincinnati, Ohio : 90.2 percent
• Columbia, South Carolina : 89.3 percent

On the opposite end on the home affordability scale, the New York-White Plains, New York-Wayne, New Jersey region ranked last in home affordability for the 16th consecutive quarter. Just 31.5% of homes there are affordable to families earning the local median income.

Looking For Low Mortgage Rates?

The housing market has good momentum. Home sales are higher and low mortgage rates deserve at least some of the credit. So does the availability of low downpayment mortgage programs.
The FHA's 3.5% downpayment program, and the USDA and VA programs allowing for 100% financing have both helped keep home buyers in the market. See how today's low rates and low downpayment loans can help you, too.

Can you Qualify for the Lowest of the Lows?

Freddie Mac says mortgage rates are 3.79% nationwide with an accompanying 0.7 discount points nationwide -- an all-time low. Yet, few people actually get that rate from their lender with the same number of points.

What's the real reason why you can't lock Freddie Mac's 3.79% rates?
Turns out, there are 3 of them.

30-Day Mortgage Rates At 3.79%? Only For Some.

Each week, Freddie Mac publishes a national mortgage rate survey. The survey results are based on the mortgage rate responses from roughly 125 banks nationwide. The banks tell Freddie Mac their "going rates" for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, 15-year fixed rate mortgage and 5-year ARM, and Freddie Mac dutifully reports it to the American People.

Unfortunately, the posted rates make a gross assumption -- they assume a 30-day rate lock agreement between the bank and the customer. And, lately, except for purchase money transactions, 30-day rate lock agreements have been rare.

Few banks are giving 30-day rate locks anymore because it's getting tougher and tougher to close a refinance in 30 days. There are multiple reasons for this, including :
oLow mortgage rates have created a surge in active mortgage loan applications
oNew federal loan compliance regulations have added extra days to underwriting
oThere are fewer appraisers to service a growing number of requests, increasing turnaround times from scheduling to completion.

In addition, banks employ fewer "back-office" personnel as compared to during other growth cycles. In short, people can only work so fast and today's mortgage applications are subject to thorough vetting process. When loan volume's low, banks work through files quickly.
Volume has not been low in 9 months. Mortgage lenders are working through backlogs as best as they can, but until they're caught up, refinancing homeowners in California, Virginia, and everywhere in between will be forced to take 45-day rate lock or, in some cases, 60-day rate locks. These longer rate locks add to mortgage costs, and push mortgage rates up.

The mortgage rate for a 45-day rate lock is typically 1/8 percent higher than for a comparable 30-day; a 60-day rate lock is often 1/4 percent higher.
This is why it doesn't matter than Freddie Mac says mortgage rates are 3.79% nationwide. If your bank can't close a loan start-to-finish in 30 days, your mortgage rate will be higher, or your required discount points will be higher. Period.

What is the FOMC is doing

According to the recently-released FOMC Minutes, the Federal Reserve stands prepared to launch new market stimulus should Europe not contain damage from its current political and economic environment.

Fed : Vigilant On Europe

The Fed Minutes are released 8 times annually -- three weeks to the day after the FOMC adjourns. Fed Minutes are similar to the minutes of a shareholder meeting; or, minutes from your condo board.
For the Fed, Fed Minutes are a follow-up statement; an opportunity to provide additional insight into the mind of the nation's central bank beyond the group's more well-known post-meeting press release.
For example, when the Fed adjourned April 25, it made a press release that totaled 444 words. Its minutes spanned 6,618.
The extra words matter, of course. They are what gives the markets insight into how the Ben Bernanke & Co view the U.S. economy, its strengths and weaknesses, and its threats.
Among today's biggest threats, says the Fed : Europe. If Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, trigger a default contagion, it could harm U.S. businesses and the economy. Already, U.S. financial institutions have reduced their exposure in Eurozone nations.

Mortgage Underwriting Harming Housing

In addition to its comments on Europe, the Fed also remarked that the housing market is being "held back" by a glut of distressed properties, and by restrictive mortgage underwriting. Until these hurdles are removed, it's likely that housing market will by suppressed.
Some of the Fed's other comments included :

• Unemployment rates are expected to remain elevated through 2014
• Fiscal contraction is likely in 2012 if Congress can't reach a budget agreement
• The Fed Funds Rate should remain near 0.000% until late-2014

Despite these threats, however, the U.S. economy remains in growth mode and is expanding. Normally, an economic expansion would cause mortgage rates to rise but given the uncertainty that Europe has introduced, and the growing possibility of new, Fed-led stimulus, mortgage rates are sinking.
In jumbo-conforming areas in the western U.S. such as Orange County, California and Honolulu, Hawaii; through to the eastern markets of Miami, Florida and Portland, Maine, conforming mortgage rates continue to drop.
This week, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage made a new, all-time for mortgage applicants willing to pay discount points and closing costs. The published Freddie Mac mortgage rate is now 3.79%.

Check Your Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve next meets in three weeks, a 2-day affair scheduled for June 19-20, 2012. Between now and then, mortgage rates will move based on developments in Europe and on changes in the U.S. economy. Rates may rise, or rates may fall. However, today, mortgage rates are as low as they've been in history.
Whether you seek purchase money, a refinance, HARP or FHA Streamline, take a look at today's low mortgage rates. Qualified homeowners stands to save hundreds each month.

Housing is Starting

Slowly and steadily, the housing market plods ahead. In April, for the third-straight month, the data backed up what today's home buyers have already found out -- in many U.S. markets, the bottom is behind us.

Housing Starts Rise For 3rd Straight Month

The Census Bureau reports that Single Family Housing Starts rose 2 percent in April, climbing to 492,000 units nationwide on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.
A "housing start" is defined a home on which ground has broken and, after accounting for the upward revision to March's Housing Starts results, last month's Single-Family Housing Starts marks the third-straight month during which starts have climbed.
In addition, the number of building permits for single-family homes rose, too, in April.
As compared to the month prior, the number of permit issued to build new homes rose 2 percent, notching its second-highest reading since March 2010 -- the month before the end of that year's federal home buyer tax credit.
More than 85 percent of permit-granted homes break ground within one month.

 

Mortgage Rates Ignoring Housing Data?

When the U.S. economy sank last decade, employment and housing were two main casualties. More than 7 million jobs were lost, half of which have since been recovered.
The housing market, however, has a longer climb back. After dropping close to 19% from its April 2007 peak, on a national basis, values have remained somewhat steady. Some markets including San Francisco, California; Phoenix, Arizona.; and Detroit, Michigan have lifted from their respective lows.
Other markets, including Atlanta, Georgia, have failed to make the same bounce.
This is one reason why Wall Street reacts more to jobs data than to housing data -- the jobs market is closer to recovery and its growth is more even. The other reason is Europe.
As Greece, France, and Spain slog through political and economic reform, they've spawned market uncertainty which, in turn, is driving investors to U.S mortgage-backed bonds. Mortgage bonds are viewed as a low-risk investment and a safe place to "park money" when global economies move toward distress.
In most months, the strong showing in U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts would lead all types of mortgage rates higher -- conventional mortgage rates, FHA mortgage rates, VA mortgage rates, and for jumbo loans, too. This month, though, with the future of the Eurozone uncertain, mortgage rates are slipping.

 

Check Your Housing Budget With A Real Mortgage Rate

Whether you're buying new construction, or buying an "existing home", you'll want to know what the home will cost you monthly, and to do that, you'll need a legitimate mortgage rate quote.
With mortgage rates low and low-downpayment programs including the FHA's 3.5% program for purchases up to $729,750, and the USDA's 100% program in qualified suburban and rural markets, you may find home affordability surprisingly high. Get started with a rate quote.

Builder Confidence Rising

Buyers of new construction are on the clock. With builder confidence rising and new home sales expected to pop, the best time to buy a new home this year may be right this very minute.

Builder Confidence At 5-Year High

After a seasonal dip in April, the National Association of Homebuilders reports that the May Housing Market Index rose 5 points to 29.
The 5-point jump marks the sharpest one-month climb for homebuilder confidence in close to 10 years.
It also raises the benchmark index to a 5-year high.
As an index, the NAHB's homebuilder confidence report is scored from 1-100. Readings north of 50 indicate favorable conditions for builders. Readings south of 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.
The HMI has been below 50 since April 2006. It's never been higher than 78 (December 1998).

Buyer "Foot Traffic" Soaring

The Housing Market Index is different from most home market statistics in that it's a psychological reading as opposed to a physical one. It doesn't measure actual homes sold but builders' expectation for how many homes will sell.
The HMI is a composite of three separate surveys sent to NAHB members. The survey questions are as follows :

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

Based on the responses from homebuilders, the Housing Market Index is scored.
This month, builders are reporting strong improvement across all three surveyed areas. Current home sales are up 5 points from April; sales expectations for the next 6 months are up 3 points form April; and, perhaps most importantly, buyer foot traffic is up 5 points from April and is now its highest point since 2007.
Higher "buyer foot traffic" tells us there's an increased demand for new construction -- the highest in 5 years, actually.

Buying New? Find Your Mortgage Budget.

With buyer traffic up and home supplies down, new construction prices appear set to rise later this summer. And, although builders aggressively compete with home resales and foreclosures for today's home buyers, don't expect to buy a home on a steal.
Builders know their market and price it right.
The good news, though, is that mortgage rates remain low and low downpayment programs are plentiful. In addition to the FHA's 3.5% downpayment program, the VA and the USDA both offer 100% financing to home buyers who meet underwriting criteria.

Have you seen today's mortgage rates?